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No Enhanced Recovery Required – Lake Elmo Capital

No Enhanced Recovery Required

The Lucas Gusher At Spindletop Hill, South of Beaumont, Texas, United States (10 January 1901)

Oil tycoon [lec-stock-link]XOM[/lec-stock-link] has been tanking from its all-time July 29, 2014, high of $104.76. At that time, it was paying 69¢ in a quarterly dividend (yielding 2.63%). Tomorrow, it will be paying 87¢ per share.

In its most recent quarter, the company reported a net loss in earnings of 72¢ per share, which takes into account all investing and financing activities such as the payment of last quarter’s dividend. Absent these activities, the company reported a cash flow of $1.04 per share from its operations. Additionally, it reported having $1.03 per share of cash and cash equivalents on hand. Reporting a total shareholder equity of $37.12 per share, it would take 42 years and 8 months of paying the current quarterly dividend to completely liquidate the company if operations immediately ceased.

With the market closing the stock at $36.93 today, the forward-looking dividend yield is 9.423%. As the market has historically demanded just under 4.5% on this particular stock, the price can be expected to rebound to at least $77. The last time this price occurred was in June 2019; if it takes this same 17-months to rebound, this price is expected to be seen again in April 2022.

If a 5% falling limit order was entered, an initial strike price of $38.78 would be observed as the close today was $36.93. After opening the position, a stop can be placed at the exiting target price to enter a trailing limit to protect the capital gain.

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